Halide Yılmaz Methods
6 posts
Methods9 minConformal Prediction: Measuring Uncertainty With Distribution-Free Guarantees
Conformal prediction turns any model into prediction sets with a distribution-free, finite-sample coverage guarantee. Split conformal step by step, the nonconformity score, and why marginal coverage is not conditional coverage.
Methods12 minCausal Inference and Uplift Modelling: “Who Will Buy?” Is the Wrong Question
A churn model that perfectly predicts who will leave tells you nothing about whom to call. Uplift modelling, the four segments, confounders versus colliders, what to do when you cannot randomise, and why reading SHAP causally is a mistake.
Methods10 minTime-Series Foundation Models: Zero-Shot Forecasting Now Beats the Classics — But Does It Beat Yours?
The answer flipped and most published content has not caught up. What fev-bench and GIFT-Eval actually report, why LLM-adapted forecasters are a separate story, and how to run the comparison honestly on your own series.
Methods3 minAnomaly Detection: Finding the Outlier Without Labels
Anomaly detection usually has no labels and very few positives. Statistical methods, Isolation Forest, autoencoders, and how to manage the false-alarm rate through threshold choice.
Methods2 minTime Series Forecasting: Trend, Seasonality and Honest Validation
Time series problems obey different rules from ordinary machine learning. Trend, seasonality, stationarity, baselines and walk-forward validation, explained practically.
Methods3 minRecommender Systems: Collaborative Filtering, Content-Based Methods and Cold Start
Recommenders rest on two ideas: similar users and similar items. Collaborative filtering, content-based methods, hybrids, the cold-start problem and the diversity trade-off.